WASHINGTON — The US Dept. of Agriculture, in its April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, raised from March its forecast carryover of corn but slightly lowered its soybean forecast.
US corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2019, was forecast at 2,035 million bushels, up 200 million bushels, or 11 percent, from 1,835 million bushels as the March forecast but down 105 million bushels, or 4.9 percent, from 2,140 million bushels in 2018.
Corn supply forecasts for the current year were unchanged from March.
Total domestic use was forecast at 12,265 million bushels, down 125 million bushels from March and down 95 million bushels from 12,360 million bushels in 2017-18. Feed and residual use was forecast at 5,300 million bushels, down 75 million bushels from March, and use of corn for ethanol was forecast at 5,500 million bushels, down 50 million bushels.
Exports in 2018-19 were forecast at 2,300 million bushels, down 75 million bushels from March and down 138 million bushels, or 6 percent, from 2,438 million bushels last year.
Feed and residual use for both wheat and corn were lowered based on estimates in the March 29 Grain Stocks report that implied lower use, the USDA said.
Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2019, was forecast at 895 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from March but up 104 percent from 438 million bushels in 2018. Unchanged from March were forecast domestic crush at 2,100 million bushels and exports at 1,875 million bushels, although exports were down 12 percent from 2017-18. Slight changes were made to imports and seed use.
The USDA 2019 carryover forecasts for corn were above the average of trade expectations while the soybean number was slightly below. There was minimal reaction in futures markets after the report with wheat futures slightly lower and nearby corn and soybean futures fractionally lower.
The USDA forecast 2018-19 world wheat ending stocks at 275.61 million tonnes, up 5.08 million tonnes from March but down 6.28 million tonnes from 281.89 million tonnes in the prior year. The changes from March mainly were based on supply revisions for Iran and lower global consumption, primarily lower feed use, the USDA said.
Global corn ending stocks were forecast at 314.01 million tonnes, up 5.48 million tonnes from March but down 26.4 million tonnes from 340.41 million tonnes in 2017-18. Corn production forecasts were raised from March for Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, the European Union and others.
World soybean ending stocks were forecast at 107.36 million tonnes, up 190,000 tonnes from March and up 8.31 million tonnes, or 8 percent, from 99.05 million tonnes in 2017-18.