PARIS – The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations recently published its agriculture outlook from 2022 until 2031.

The report covered all elements of agriculture including anticipated changes in the global meat markets over the next decade. 

Projections showed that the global meat supply will expand to 377 metric tons by 2031, which the report said is slower than the previous decade.

“Global herd and flock expansion, especially in China, combined with continuous improvement in animal breeding, management, and technology will increase productivity, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, which will drive the growth in production,” OECD and FAO said. “Higher prices for meat early in the projection period will induce a supply response, albeit restrained by higher costs for inputs, particularly for feed, energy, and transport. Bottlenecks in processing capacity witnessed during the height of the pandemic are expected to ease. China is projected to account for most of the total increase in meat production, followed by the United States, Brazil and India.”

Later in the report, global poultry production was projected to increase by 16% over the next decade. OECD/FAO explained that poultry consumption plays a significant role in the national diets of several populous developing countries, including China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines and Vietnam.

In the next category, global pig meat production was projected to increase by 17%. A significant factor in the outlook of the decade will be how the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Asia will continue to affect output through 2022. The report said a steady increase is expected after 2022.  

Global beef production showed a projected 76 metric ton increase over the next decade, with slow growth attributable to weak beef demand as consumers continue to shift preferences to poultry meat. In North America, the largest producing region, a modest herd expansion is projected to increase beef production by 4% by 2031. 

Sheep production will mostly originate in Asia, led by China, India, and Pakistan but significant increases are also projected in Africa, particularly in the least developed countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. 

The full report from OECD and FAO can be found here.