UTRECHT, NETHERLANDS — Rabobank’s Global Pork Quarterly Q1 2024 report said early indications are that pork production will slow as key regions face contraction in the sow herd.

According to Chenjun Pan, senior analyst of Animal Protein at Rabobank, forecasts point to a potential decrease in global pork trade during the first part of 2024 as high inventories in importing countries reduce demand.

“We’re looking at a soft market for pork exports, especially with the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea and Suez Canal complicating European shipments to Asia,” Pan said.

A trend in the report was the expected decline or flat production in China, the United States, and some European countries during 2024, with disease pressure adding to overall industry challenges.

Although production headwinds could be ahead, feed prices continue to come down, with corn and soybean prices falling 15% to 25% year over year.

“Lower feed costs are a welcome relief for pig farmers, improving margins in a time of uncertainty, Pan said.

However, Rabobank still cautions that weather-related volatility could impact supply and price movements.

Brazil's pork production continues to be on the rise as some regions continue to look at declining herds. The group pointed to uneven growth worldwide with African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks and loss-making pressure, especially with breed herd reduction in Asia, particularly China.

“We expect disease outbreaks to create ongoing uncertainty in 2024,” Pan said. “Meanwhile, productivity will continue to improve in 2024, driven by genetic gains, better farm management and cost reduction strategies.”

Even with all the market difficulties, pork consumption remains resilient to inflationary conditions around the world. Rabobank expects a mild improvement in global pork consumption during the year.

“Pork continues to be a staple protein, holding its ground against more expensive meat like beef,” Pan said.