KANSAS CITY, MO. — Apprehension for the current state of agriculture was high at the 2024 Ag Outlook Forum, hosted by the Agricultural Business Council of Kansas City and Agri-Pulse at the Marriott Downtown in Kansas City, Mo. With approximately 250 in-person attendees and 100 virtual viewers, all ears were tuned in to hear speakers’ insights into the likelihood of a farm bill in 2024 and what kind of economic environment producers can expect in the coming months.

According to speaker Spiro Stefanou, administrator of the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS), net farm income is expected to drop nearly 7% to $10.2 billion in 2024, relative to a year ago.

In his economic overview, USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer noted a distinct difference between the fortunes of crop producers versus that of livestock producers. The crop side is experiencing high input costs despite having a record-high corn and soybean yield.

The livestock side has seen a year-over-year increase in farm income, much of which has been driven by prices, but Meyer cautioned that price doesn’t necessarily have long-term benefits. Furthermore, the livestock supply is facing contraction.

“If we had more beef and beef producers had confidence and didn’t have as much concern about interest rates, we might have more beef to sell,” Meyer said.

State regulations, such as California’s Proposition 12 play into the economic outlook. Meyer pointed out how Prop 12 has an impact on the market as a whole, while California consumers are currently the ones paying for it.

Speaker Lori Stevermer, president of the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC), also touched on the consequences of Prop 12 and the implications it could have on the agriculture sector. She noted California’s bacon prices are up 16%, fresh ham is up 20% and — taking the lead in product price jumps — pork loins are up 41%.

“That’s a bad combination for a state that really likes pork,” she said.

Given the difficult agricultural environment, several speakers, including Representative Tracey Mann (R-Kan.), voiced their concern for the industry.

“We were at a hearing the other day in the House, and I told everybody if I was going to summarize where I see agriculture at right now — if we were to use one word to summarize it — my word would be ‘concerned,’” Mann said.

The delay in a finalized farm bill is contributing to the ag sector’s difficulties. Mann said he is pushing to get a five-year farm bill passed.

Despite the challenges facing the ag sector, hope was not absent from the conference. Speakers pointed to several bright spots amidst the hurdles.

“This is a really important time,” said Senator Jerry Moran (R-Kan.). “I thought that the timing, in which this outlook conference was occurring, is taking place in which I actually see developments in Washington, DC, that are more optimistic to me than they were a week ago or two weeks ago or three months ago.”

For Stevermer, the bright spot comes from the United States’ thriving pork exports as well as a passionate next generation of producers coming into the industry. In 2023, the United States exported $8.2 billion worth of pork, which was approximately 25% of the nation’s total pork production.

“The good thing about that is that we are exporting cuts that we don’t typically eat here in the United States,” Stevermer said. “Those variety meats are going to countries that like those products, and what that does is that lifts the value of our carcass. That increases the value about $64 a head.”