KANSAS CITY, MO. — Ideas about supplies and prices of red meat and poultry are becoming clearer for 2025 based on recent US Department of Agriculture data, driven by factors such as lower feed prices, low cattle numbers and slow hog herd expansion.

While profitability between livestock sectors varies, all have benefited from lower feed prices, with corn the major energy component and soybean meal the main protein source in animal rations, the past few years. Lower feed prices tend to result in higher cattle and hog weights at slaughter, sometimes resulting in gains in production even if fewer livestock are slaughtered.

Total red meat and poultry production in 2025 was projected by the USDA at 108,190 million lbs, up 0.3% from 2024 as lower beef production was more than offset by higher pork, broiler and turkey production. Total 2024 production was forecast at 107,884 million lbs, up 0.9% from 2023 based on higher beef, pork and broiler output.

With the approach of Thanksgiving, turkeys often are front of mind. Total frozen turkey supplies on Sept. 30 were down 0.4% from a year earlier, with toms up 1.5% but hens down 3.1%, the USDA said.

The USDA forecast 2024 turkey production at 5,110 million lbs, down 6% from 2023. Only a minor bump was forecast for 2025 at 5,165 million lbs, up 1.1% from 2024. Market prices for turkeys (8 to 16 lb hens) are forecast sharply lower in 2024 at 93.8¢ a lb, down 33% from 2023, with 2025 prices projected at 99.8¢ a lb, up 6% from the current year. Whether lower prices will be evident at retail remains to be seen.

US broiler production in 2024 was forecast at 47,084 million lbs, up 1.5% from 2023, with 2025 output projected at 47,825 million lbs, up 1.6% from 2024. Broiler production far outpaces any other red meat or poultry sector in production, domestic consumption and exports. Market prices for broilers were forecast at 129.1¢ per lb in 2024, up 3.8% from 2023, with the 2025 average price up slightly at 129.3¢ per lb.

As with grains, oilseeds and oranges, the United States continues to lose ground to Brazil in global broiler exports. Brazil accounted for 35% of global chicken exports in 2023 compared with 25% for the United States. US broiler exports in 2024 were forecast down 7% from 2023, with 2025 exports forecast up 1.3% from 2024.

For the red meat sectors, the USDA forecast beef production at 25,925 million lbs in 2025, down 4% from 2024 and the lowest since 2016. Outturn in 2024 was up slightly from 2023. The USDA forecast slaughter steer prices to average $186.50 per cwt in 2025, up slightly from $186.18 per cwt estimated for the current year and compared with $175.54 per cwt in 2023.

The US cattle inventory on Jan. 1 was 87,157,400 head, down 1.9% from a year earlier and the lowest since 1951. Cattle numbers have declined for four consecutive years in part due to drought and challenging profit margins.

Pork production in 2025 was forecast at 28,515 million lbs, up 2% from 2024, which was up 2.4% from 2023. The USDA said the US hog inventory on Sept. 1 was up 0.5% from a year earlier, including hogs kept for breeding down 2.2% and hogs for slaughter up 0.7%. The lower breeding number will keep expansion of hog and pork production in check. Slaughter hog (barrows and gilts) prices were forecast to average $58 per cwt in 2025, with prices projected to strengthen as the year progresses after a weak first quarter. Next year’s average was down 3% from $59.80 per cwt in 2024 and down 1% from $58.59 per cwt last year.

Total red meat and poultry per capita consumption in 2025 was projected at 228.5 lbs, down 0.5 lb from 2024, with 2024 at 229 lbs per person, up 3.6 lbs, or 1.6%, from 2023. Per capita broiler consumption was forecast at 103.1 lbs in 2025, compared with beef at 57.5 lbs, pork at 51.2 lbs, turkey at 13.7 lbs and lamb at 1.2 lbs.