DENVER — Consumers may be drifting away from whole turkeys as the dominant center-of-plate choice for Thanksgiving dinner, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. While turkey is set to remain the traditional Thanksgiving protein this year with ample supplies and favorable prices, economists at CoBank say shifting consumer trends are making the longevity of the holiday turkey less certain.

Factors at play include growing demand for convenience, longer-term pressure on turkey supplies and increasing competition from beef and pork.

“Most consumers think about cooking a whole turkey only once a year,” said Brian Earnest, animal protein economist with CoBank. “And some of those consumers have moved away from preparing a whole turkey for Thanksgiving. The beef and pork sectors have seen the shift in consumer behavior and view it as an opportunity to capture a bigger share of Thanksgiving protein purchases.” 

CoBank’s report notes a downward trend in turkey supplies, coupled with changing traditions and consumer openness to other animal proteins that could trigger a longer-term decline in holiday turkey sales.

Promotional activity around the holidays often drives much of what shoppers choose to pick up, CoBank said. Retailers tend to price turkeys as a loss leader in hopes that sales on the other items in consumers’ Thanksgiving shopping carts will offset the losses. However, in recent years, the US Department of Agriculture’s feature activity index shows a notable decline in promotional turkey pricing around the holidays.

As retailers began planning for Thanksgiving features last January, projections for turkey inventories were reported at their lowest point in four decades, signaling reduced availability in 2024. Yet, inventories of whole turkeys in cold storage were up about 4% year-over-year in September when they peaked at 246 million lbs. Although inventories are still down 100 million lbs from 2018 levels, the improved supply means consumers should find favorable prices for whole turkeys this Thanksgiving season. 

Earnest said that sliding demand for whole turkeys over the long term means producers should be evaluating the overall product mix more closely.

“The opportunity to grow turkey consumption may be elsewhere,” he said. “Per Circana, ground turkey has shown tremendous strength this year, with retail volume sales increasing 5.5% to reach $1.9 billion in sales over the 52 weeks period ending Sept. 8. The upswing in demand for different types of turkey products reflects the changing nature of consumer preferences.”