KANSAS CITY, MO. — While the spread of the H5N1 virus, also known as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), does not yet pose a threat to public health, it does have the potential to disrupt markets, particularly for eggs and, more recently, milk. The virus has spread from birds to dairy cattle to humans and has state and federal authorities scrambling to assess its potential impact and find ways to slow or stop its spread. Also, a significant risk is how misinformation about the virus may shape public opinion about the safety of some foods and beverages.

It was only two years ago that HPAI outbreaks propelled egg prices to record highs. Since then, the impact of the virus on egg markets has been muted as producers have tightened biosecurity around production facilities and become acutely attuned to signs of infection.

An added layer of complexity to the impact of the virus emerged earlier this year when dairy cattle began to test positive. The US Department of Agriculture immediately mandated testing for HPAI from any dairy cattle crossing state lines to slow the spread. Nevertheless, since the first positive test in dairy cattle in March, 616 herds nationwide have tested positive, including 402 in California.

Adding to concern about the virus has been its detection in people — some who work around dairy cattle and a few who have not had contact with cattle — and the recent detection of the virus in raw milk. On Nov. 24, the California Department of Public Health said HPAI had been detected in a single lot of raw milk produced by a company in Fresno. The company issued a recall of the lot that tested positive, and the California Department of Public Health went to great lengths to reassure consumers that the virus cannot survive the pasteurization process and that they should not drink raw milk.

Against this backdrop, conspiracy theories have emerged that HPAI will be used as a pretext to implement COVID-19-style lockdowns globally, that it will prompt the World Health Organization to declare martial law and that the virus is being used to destroy food supplies and raise prices.

The United States has a robust animal health and public health infrastructure intended for situations such as the emergence of HPAI. Work has been underway to develop a vaccine to inoculate poultry. Similar work has been started to develop a vaccine for dairy cattle, and the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has begun enhanced testing and monitoring for H5N1, building on measures taken by the USDA since the beginning of the HPAI outbreak.

Producers, together with federal and state authorities are dealing with proven facts on the ground, but markets must also brace for the potential impact of misinformation spread on social media as well.

While the claims are outlandish, each represents potential tinder to fuel a fire bringing into question the safety of egg, poultry meat or milk supplies. Any one could be devastating and set back the progress being made to address the actual threats HPAI pose to producers and manufacturers.