Board analysts boosted its 2011 broiler forecast, increasing it by 49 million lbs. above last month’s report and 1.1% ahead of the revised production forecast for last year.
At present, broiler exports for 2010 are estimated to total 6.519 billion lbs., 100 million lbs. more than last month’s estimate, but 4.4% under the 6.818 billion lbs. exported in 2009. This year’s export forecast for broilers was left unchanged at 6.650 billion lbs., a gain of 2.0% over the revised export estimate for 2010.
Wholesale broiler prices for 2010 and 2011 were trimmed slightly from last month’s outlook as larger supplies of broilers and competing meats will pressure prices lower. USDA’s wholesale 12-city whole broiler price for 2010 is now likely to average 82.9 cents per lb., 0.2 cents per lb. below the estimate in the December report. Last month USDA expected the 12-city price to average between 81-88 cents per lb. for 2011, but analysts in this month’s report took 2 cents off the top end of the range to have an 81-86 cents per lb. forecast for this year.
The board raised its production estimates for 2010 for beef and pork.
Combined red meat and poultry production for 2010 is now estimated at 91.711 billion lbs., 392 million lbs. more than last month and 1.2% above the 90.631 billion lbs. in 2009. This year’s total red meat and poultry production will likely total 91.470 billion lbs., 150 million more lbs. than seen last month and 0.3% less than the revised total production for 2010.
