“The outlook revision to negative reflects our opinion that higher feed costs in the company’s core chicken segment together with weaker-than-expected pricing (primarily due to an oversupply of chicken inventories leading into the first quarter [of fiscal 2011] will cause a significant EBITDA decline and lead to weaker-than-expected credit measures in fiscal 2011,” said Christopher Johnson, a credit analyst for S&P. “We believe adjusted EBITDA margins will decline by more than 250 basis points year-over-year resulting in full-year EBITDA of less than $300 million and an adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio of close to 5.5x by fiscal year-end 2011.”
Implicit in the projections is an expectation Pilgrim’s Pride will face double-digit grain inflation in its chicken raising operations in 2011, and that higher pricing will not fully offset the increased grain costs.
The agency said the negative outlook reflects S&P’s view that operating performance is likely to remain weaker than originally expected.