Smoldt suggested that the crop as a whole would likely average about 160 bus per acre and generally be disease-free and of good quality.
“The crop has been better than we thought,” he said.
He estimated that the US Department of Agriculture’s Crop Progress report issued Oct. 28 will show the corn harvest at about 60 percent completed, with 30 percent to 50 percent of corn harvested in the western Corn Belt as of the latest week. The USDA has estimated that the 2013 corn crop would be about 13.8 billion bushels.
On Nov. 8, the USDA will release the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports, the first since September (the October reports were cancelled during the partial shutdown of the US government). The November data will fine tune assessments of the size of this year’s corn crop.
Despite growing evidence that the 2013 crop was exceptionally large, corn prices were not expected to plunge, although they could fall to a level not seen since the third quarter of 2010, Smoldt said.
“The pipeline is very empty after last year’s short crop,” he said. He predicted prices would likely not sink below about $4.10-4.15 a bushel this year because export and ethanol demand would remain healthy.
He said corn export forecasts for 2013 were about 1,225 million bushels, well above the 735 million bushels of 2012, despite the fact that some customers have developed other markets such as the Black Sea region and South America to fill their import needs.
Storage for the large, new crop was expected to be improved from past years, but probably not sufficient to completely take care of all the supplies. Elevators will be full.
“There will be stuff on the ground,” he added, and that producers were likely to sell quickly. Most of the new crop, though, was expected to be stored because, at current prices, around $4.32 a bushel and headed lower for December corn, farmers are in no hurry to sell, Smoldt said.
