WASHINGTON — US poultry and egg production is projected to grow steadily through 2033, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS). The agency’s annual 10-year projections assume no more outbreaks of animal disease, a continuation of existing US and global policies and trade agreements, normal weather, and specific macroeconomic conditions.

Coming off a long season of production volatility due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the sweeping reach of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks across the nation, ERS predicts prices for each of the major poultry products to become stable over the next decade as disease mitigation efforts are continually implemented.

More specifically, broiler and egg market prices are anticipated to increase moderately over the projection period, while turkey prices are expected to drop slightly as domestic demand weakens.

ERS reported poultry to be the most consumed animal protein in the United States, with 46% of all red meat and poultry consumption in 2023 to be from broiler and turkey meat — an accumulation of $50 billion worth.

Chicken production is estimated to grow from 45.7 billion lbs in 2022 to 52.5 billion lbs in 2033, surpassing previous records each year. Over the past few years, broiler production has weathered the health challenges without experiencing dramatic drops.

Turkey production did not fare as well through the pandemic and HPAI outbreaks. From 2017 to 2022, production declined 12.7% from 6 billion lbs to 5.2 billion lbs — the lowest production level of the century. ERS noted that the pandemic changed patterns of demand for turkey meat. Not helping matters, in 2022 an HPAI outbreak led to the depopulation of over 9 million turkeys, which was followed up by a second wave of the virus soon after.

Under the ERS’s assumption that the HPAI outbreaks have run their course, turkey production is estimated to grow 14% by 2033, reaching 6 billion lbs.

The egg industry is also recovering from HPAI hits. ERS projected egg production to recover in 2024 and continue to expand to a record of 10.8 billion dozen by 2033. However, recent forecasts for egg production in 2024 are lower, ERS noted, due to ongoing disease challenges.

The ERS report also included an outlook for poultry and egg producer prices. Farm prices for eggs peaked in 2022 at $2.39 per dozen but are projected to remain well below this high. ERS does not expect them to exceed $1.50 per dozen throughout the projection period.

Broiler farm prices also peaked in 2022 at $0.85 per pound. A decline is anticipated through 2028, dropping as low as $0.71 per pound before beginning a steady climb and reaching $0.75 per pound by 2033.

A slow but steady decrease in turkey prices throughout the projection period is likewise expected due to declining consumption of turkey meat along with higher production. Farm prices for turkey reached a high of $1.07 per pound in 2022. By 2025, they are expected to fall to $0.96 and by 2033 to $0.91. These projected prices are still above pre-2022 levels.