WASHINGTON — Meat consumption and production in Mexico is expected to increase over the next decade, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Projections to 2033 report.

Mexico’s consumption of poultry, pork and beef combined is projected to reach 82.5 kilograms per capita in 2033, which is approximately two-thirds of projected total US meat consumption (124 kilograms).

Taking the lead is poultry consumption, which is projected to rise from 38.3 kilograms per person in 2023 to 43.8 kilograms in 2033. Pork follows suit with a jump from 20.2 kilograms to 22.6 kilograms in the next 10 years. Beef will also see a slight increase from 15.7 kilograms to 16 kilograms.

To meet the growing demand in Mexico, the country will likely increase its imports as well as domestic meat production. USDA’s report predicts Mexico’s chicken and pork imports will grow over the coming decade by 31% and 17%, respectively. However, beef imports are expected to drop by 5%. Imports of corn, soybeans and soybean meal are anticipated to rise as the country increases livestock production. Between 2023 and 2033, Mexico’s meat production is projected to rise 22% for chicken, 24% for pork and 25% for beef.

USDA noted that the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), implemented by the United States, Mexico and Canada on Jan. 1, 1994, has created a more integrated market among the three countries, reflected in the agency’s 2033 projections. For Mexico, NAFTA marked a transformation from the strict administration of imports through licensing requirements and tariffs to a system of tariff- and quota-free trade with the United States and Canada, USDA said.

NAFTA’s successor agreement — the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which took effect on July 1, 2020 — continues market access provisions, including those governing agricultural trade between the United States and Mexico. The USDA’s projections for 2033 assume that the USMCA’s market access provisions remain in effect throughout the projection period (2024–2033).

Between 1993 and 2023, Mexico’s corn imports more than quadrupled, soybean imports increased by 190% and soybean meal imports grew by 47%, with most of these imports going toward feed use. Over the same period, Mexico’s meat production increased by 183% for chicken, 80% for pork, and 26% for beef, according to USDA’s Production, Supply and Distribution estimates.